2 Free Tips for today’s Ladbroke…

By on December 19, 2015

Here’s Nick Pullen with a couple of free tips for today’s big handicap…

This weekend our target race is the Ladbroke. This is a Grade 3 handicap hurdle for horses aged 4yo+. It is contested over 2 miles at Ascot this afternoon at 3.35. You can watch the race live on C4 and RUK.

A field of 21 is set to go to post on ground currently described as soft (good to soft in places). There is a little rain forecast overnight – but don’t rely on it. The rain forecast by the Met Office last weekend didn’t materialise.

John Ferguson’s Devilment, 4th in last season’s Triumph Hurdle, heads the weight off an official mark of 150. At the other end of the scale Song Light runs for Seamus Mullins and carries 10-07 off a mark of 131.

Five last-time-out winners go to post – and another 8 that hit the first 3 in their last run.

This is a good race to target for value prices over the last decade because favourites have failed to live up to the hype – just one has been successful over the 10-year-period.

 

Field-splitters and angles of attack….

 

Some key statistical pointers help split the field and provide a route into the race….

  • 8 of the last 10 winners were 5- or 6-years-old
  • 8 carried 10-09 or more
  • 9 finished in the first 3 last time out
  • 8 registered a performance worth an RPR of 130+ last time out
  • 9 had run at least 4 timesover hurdles but no more than 10 times

If you like to find your own bets then those statistical pointers should help identify horses of interest….

 

This week’s selections….

 

Running out a very in-form yard, RENNETI is a perfectly acceptable price at 14s.

Last month Willie Mullins’s hard-to-ride and hard-to-train 6yo finished 4th in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham. He was only beaten just over 7 lengths by the winner Old Guard (who has subsequently won a G2 and confirmed his status as a Champion Hurdle prospect) and was giving away weight.

Had he not got away slowly that day then he would have been a lot closer and would probably have gone up more than the 3lbs. The overwhelming impression is that he can land a big handicap pot off his current mark if things go right.

It is a big if, of course. Renneti has always been considered a bit of a thinker. But Danny Mullins – who partnered at Cheltenham and will have learnt something about his mount – is back onboard for tomorrow’s assignment. And the horse has now put in two decent efforts back-to-back (the first being in the Cesarewitchon the flat back in October) and he can build on that tomorrow.

GALIZZI can go well for John Ferguson at a tasty 25s with Paddy Power and 20s generally.

The 4yo might have a dearth of experience with just 4 runs under his belt to date. But he’s very progressive and his performance last time out behind A Hare Breath at Cheltenham suggests that 10-09 is a competitive weight for him tomorrow afternoon.

The soft ground is a slight concern. But he did finish 2nd at Newmarket on the flat on good to soft ground. And with conditions generally mild and breezy at Ascot over the next 24 hours, the ground will be drying all the time. I’m minded to give Galizzi the shot at the prices and I’m encouraged by the fact that Aidan Coleman chooses him over the other two Ferguson participants.

We go to war with two horses with names very much like those of Mafia hitmen – hopefully we can make a killing with them….

 

How I’ll be playing….

We don’t have to be betting in hundreds to make the game worthwhile or fun. A £10.00 spend is plenty to be going on with. I’ll be investing as follows:

  • RENNETI £5.00 win @ 12s (Generally)
  • GALIZZI £5.00 win @ 25s (Paddy Power) & 20s (Generally)  

Note: The firms are paying out 1/4 the odds on the first 4 places and I wouldn’t put you off backing either horse each-way if that’s the way you like to play the selections.


 

Thanks to Nick Pullen for that great analysis.

Let’s smash those bookies,
Kris Jackman | Founder Tipster Supermarket

P.S. Nick is the genius behind the Winning Race Profiles service. Somehow he manages to pick big priced winners every weekend. If that sounds like something you’d like to be a part of you can get a 14 day free trial here.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *