This micro-system has found 97.22% of the winners in grade 1 chases over the past 6 Cheltenham festivals

By on February 28, 2020

Time for another email in the Cheltenham stats series.

As I said previously I recommend saving these emails and coming back to them each morning of the festival.

Once again this stat comes from the great Ben Aitken, the NH genius over at Narrowing The Field.

This stat is going to be great for quickly whittling down the field in the grade 1 chases to the likely contenders.

Here goes (stats are taken from the last six Cheltenham Festivals):

35 of the 36 Grade 1 Chase winners passed all the following trends…

Aged 6yo-10yo.

Won 1 of their last 4 starts.
Ran in a Non-Handicap Chase LTO.
Days since last run 21-90.
1-5 starts in current season.
At least one previous start at track.

Here’s what Ben has to say:

“Now that is a tad ‘general’ when it comes to the stats and the stats do vary from race to race BUT if you are looking for a very quick method of finding the most likely winners of the festival Grade 1 chases then that’s as good a starting point as any.

If you had backed all qualifiers to Betfair SP (197 of them) then you would have actually made a profit (+£96.69 BFLSP), albeit it’s probably much more useful as a ‘starting point’ and it would have knocked out 183 of the G1 Chase losers in the past 6 years.

You’d still have some work to do but you’d certainly be well on your way.”

Fascinating stuff there that should stand you in good stead come Cheltenham.

If you’d prefer someone else to do the hard work for you (and I don’t blame you) then I recommend following Cleeve Racing’s advice.

I’ll be on their tips at the festival and I’m looking forward to a good one.

You can join me and get their tips for a tenner here.

Take care,
Kris Jackman | Founder Tipster Supermarket