Free Premier League Tip 19th Dec

By on December 19, 2015

Here’s Jamie P with his football betting column…

 

Mahrez to outfox the Everton defence

 

I’m not entirely sure what it is that Leicester need to do to start earning more respect from the bookmakers.

Sign Lionel Messi in January?

I say this because despite losing just one match all season out of 19 (a league defeat to Arsenal, they were knocked out on penalties by Hull in the Cup so that one counts as a draw), being top of the Premier League after 16 matches and scoring in every game so far this season, you can still get some pretty fancy prices about them.

I wouldn’t put anyone off taking the 3.75 on them beating Everton at Goodison Park because quite simply, that is a value bet.

That said, for the purposes of our patient approach I’m going to play this one a little bit safer and go for Leicester on the Double Chance market at 1.83.

This cautious approach is mainly because Everton are on a pretty decent unbeaten run of their own.

It’s eight matches since they tasted defeat- like Leicester they found Arsenal a little too much for them – so they and the in-form Romelu Lukaku deserve some respect of their own.

Roberto Martinez will be relatively happy with that run but in truth, he could easily have had six more points from his last three Premier League matches.

They were 3-2 up at Bournemouth in injury time, had 62% possession at home to Palace when Lukaku hit the woodwork twice and were all over Norwich when 1-0 up last weekend.

They ended up drawing all three.

That suggests they’re playing well and creating chances but it also suggests a lack of ruthlessness and inability to close out matches.

Good news for our bet then.

I heard the TV commentators say at the end of their win over Chelsea that Leicester might struggle to keep hold of Riyad Mahrez more than they will Jamie Vardy and I tend to agree.

The reason is that the Algerian is just 24 and can still get better whilst Vardy is 29 in January and with all due respect to the former Fleetwood man, this is probably as good as he’s going to get.

Mahrez has 13 goals from 19 matches in all competitions (including internationals) and four in his last two games.

I also have a feeling that if Leicester get a penalty in this match it will be him taking it and not Vardy.

I say that because they take turns taking penalties and during Vardy’s record-breaking run I saw Mahrez hand Vardy the ball when it was clearly his turn to take the penalty.

With Vardy’s scoring run now over it should be down to Mahrez if the opportunity arises.

A small detail but one which could be important.

Especially when we’re backing Mahrez to score anytime at 3.75.

 

Selections…

 

1.5 pt bet Leicester on the Double Chance market @ 1.83 with Bet365.

0.5 pt bet Riyad Mahrez to score anytime @ 3.75 with Paddy Power.


Good luck,
Kris Jackman | Founder Tipster Supermarket

P.S. Jamie is one of the contributing experts for the Betting Insiders Club. If you fancy daily tipping analysis, trends, and systems read more about it here.

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