5 ways to identify early flat season winners…

By on March 30, 2017

Trying to find winners in early season 2yo races is a bit of a minefield.

But I came across a forum post the other day that identified 5 criteria that can point to winners.

Here goes…

1. Previous Experience.

Even if a 2yo has run ‘green’ and finished well behind the winner on its debut, it will have gained valuable experience.

Which will stand it in good stead if it next runs in a race where all/most of the runners are making their racecourse debut.

2. Breeding

Some sires have a tendency to produce precocious offspring, so it is often worth considering runners by these sires when they race early in the season.

Even if they are from an unfashionable stable and are available at big odds.

3. US Bred Runners.

This was a guideline that was recommended by Nick Mordin, many years ago which still holds true.

US bred 2yos tend to be more precocious and mature than their European bred counterparts, so tend to do well in early season races.

As highlighted by Wesley Ward’s US raiders at Royal Ascot, albeit there are also often profits to be made from US bred 2yos that are brought as yearlings to race specifically in the UK and Ireland.

4. Foaling Dates.

2yos will generally have been foaled between the beginning of January and the end of May each year, which means that those that run in April could be any age between 2 years and 3 months and 1 year and 10 months.

A few weeks difference in age at this time of year can make an appreciable impact on a 2yos physical and mental strength at this time of year, so it often pays to focus on the older runners in these early season races.

5. Trainer Patterns.

It often pays to consider the historic records of trainers with early season 2yos, albeit it is always worth checking that the stable hasn’t suffered undue hold ups due to poor weather, etc, as follows:

– Some trainers are renowned for having their juvenile runners primed to run well on their early season debuts, e.g. Bill Turner and Mark Johnston, to name a couple.

– It is also worth noting trainers who do well with their juvenile runners at specific tracks, or in certain races.

– There are also some trainers who have a good record with juveniles who are allowed to run in a seller on their debut, or after just 1 attempt in a Maiden, or Novice event.

Some food for thought there and I hope you can put it to good use.

If you want someone to do the hard work for you then I recommend you check out Dave Walton aka the Flat Specialist.

Over the last two years he’s averaged £19,214.00 profit each season to £50 stakes.

He’s currently offering a 50% discount which you can read about here.

Kris Jackman | Founder Tipster Supermarket

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