York Ebor Racing Tips

By on August 19, 2014
York Ebor Racing Tips

Today we have a special guest post from Gavin Priestly from the widely praised Nag Nag Nag blog.

He’s had a glance over the trends and has come up with some York Ebor racing tips for us.

 


 

The York Ebor meeting starts on Wednesday and it promises to be a crackerjack feast of top class racing.

Derby winner Australia and Oaks & King George winner Taghrooda are both scheduled to run on the first two days whilst crack 2yo Alexander Anthem is due to take on her elders in the Nunthorpe on Friday.

With her age and sex weight allowance I doubt they’ll see which way she went.

With loads of other classy races and plenty of decent handicaps throughout the week it’s a punters paradise.

So, here are a few trainer, jockey and handicap stats that might help us find a few winners…

 

WILLIE HAGGAS

 

The number 1 trainer at the meeting since 2006 is Willie Haggas.

If you had backed all his runners blindly over this period you would have had at least one winner for 6 of the last 7 years and shown a level stakes profit (LSP) of 25.25pts.

 

[table id=1 /]

 

Not bad at all! but even better when you see that….

 

  • All 10 winners had raced within the last 50 days.
  • All 10 winners were 9/1 or shorter.
  • All 10 winners had raced a maximum of 8 times in their career.

 

By using these 3 simple rules you would have had:

 

[table id=2 /]

 

And going back to 2006 you would have seen results of:

 

[table id=3 /]

 

Willie Haggas – York Ebor Racing Tips 2014 (if under 10/1):

 

MUTHMIR 1.55 York (Wednesday)
SQUATS 4.55 York (Wednesday)
VALLEY OF FIRE 1.55 York (Thursday)
MUBTAGHAA 1.55 York (Thursday)
ARABIAN COMET 4.20 York (Thursday)
QUEEN OF ICE 4.20 York (Thursday)
WONDERSTRUCK 4.20 York (Thursday)
FELWAH 4.55 York (Thursday)
MEETING WATERS 4.55 York (Thursday)
SATELLITE 1.55 York (Friday)
ERTIJAAL 3.05 York (Friday)
PERFECT PERSUASION 4.55 York (Friday)

Saturday’s declared runners to follow.

 

KEVIN RYAN

 

He can’t boast the consistency of Willie Haggas at this meeting but is starting to make an impression and for the last 4 Ebor meetings he has managed figures of…

 

[table id=4 /]

 

So if we concentrate on the last 4 years and look a little deeper we find that:

 

  • All 8 winners were over 5-6F.
  • All 8 winners were aged 2-4yo.
  • All 8 winners were male.
  • All 8 winners were 12/1 or shorter.

 

Which once again, by following these 4 simple rules gives us some impressive results:

 

[table id=5 /]

 

[table id=7 /]

 

Kevin Ryan – York Ebor Racing Tips 2014 (if under 12/1):

 

TERENTUM STAR 4.55 York (Wednesday)
UPTIGHT 4.55 York (Wednesday)
HOT STREAK 3.40 York (Friday)
ASTAIRE 3.40 York (Friday)

Saturday’s runners to follow.

 

KIERAN FALLON

 

If there’s one jockey you want on your side for York it’s Kieran Fallon who since coming back from suspension has figures at the meeting of:

 

[table id=8 /]

 

which are backed up by overall figures at any York meeting since 2006 of:

 

[table id=9 /]

 

  • 9 stone seems to be about the minimum weight he’s been comfortable riding at although he has ridden 3 winners at lower than this (but from 60 rides!).
  • 17 of his 26 winners came in handicaps
  • All 26 winners were 20/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 25 of his 26 winners came in races up to 1m4f
  • His record on 4yo’s is 13 winners from 47 runners and a LSP of £66.75
  • He only rode 7 of the 26 winners on their previous start so it make be worthwhile looking for his ‘new’ rides

 

Kieran Fallon – York Ebor Racing Tips 2014:

 

So, this week simply back the Fallon 4yo mounts carrying 9-00 or more that are running up to 1m4f.

 

His record on these types at York since 2010 is:

 

[table id=10/]

HANDICAP STATS

 

If we forget the nurseries (2yo handicaps) and go back to 2004 we can see there have been 83 handicaps run at the Ebor meeting. From these 83 races……

 

  • All 83 winners were rated 104 or less.
  • All 83 winners had been rested at least 4 days.
  • 82 of the 83 winners had run in the last 75 days.
  • 81 winners carried 8-03 or more.
  • 77 winners carried 9-08 or less.
  • 77 winners ran in a handicap last time out.
  • 75 winners were ridden by non claiming jockeys (claimers: 8 wins /163 rides).
  • 75 winners were 20/1 or shorter.
  • 73 winners were 14/1 or shorter.
  • 40 winners finished in the top 3 last time out.

 

York Ebor Racing Tips 2014 For handicaps:

 

SIMPLE 6 RULE HANDICAP SYSTEM

 

1) AGED 3-5

2) CARRYING 9-00 – 9-08

3) RATED 89-101

4) RESTED 11 – 38 DAYS

5) 14/1 OR SHORTER

6) NOT RIDDEN BY A CLAIMING JOCKEY

 

[table id=5/]

 

[table id=11/]

 

Good luck,
Gavin.


I hope you’ve enjoyed this guest blog post on York Ebor racing tips 2014. Gavin has an excellent blog over at http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk so if you like this sort of analysis, make sure you check him out over there.

 

One Comment

  1. Alan

    August 19, 2014 at 9:18 am

    I will give your stats a go regards Alan

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