Stats & Trends For The Hennessy Gold Cup

By on November 29, 2014

Today’s post is all about the Hennessy Gold Cup and comes courtesy of the excellent Proform.

If winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup is the pinnacle of National Hunt Racing, then the Hennessy is a significant qualifying event for any horse wishing to climb to the top.

8 horses have completed the Hennessy Gold Cup and Cheltenham double with Bobs Worth (2012/2013) the most recent addition to this prestigious list.

As testament to the quality of the runners in the race, Lord Windermere the winner of this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup was placed 8th behind the 2013 Hennessy winner Triolo D’Alene.

Therefore it’s not an understatement to say that barring injury in the run up to the festival, whomever triumphs in this year’s Hennessy renewal will be a major player at Prestbury Park come March.

The Hennessy was first established in 1957 and to give you some statistical pointers, we have analysed our extensive data on the race since 1997 to uncover the following factors.

 

Finishing Position in Recent Race

As always, recent form is a prerequisite for a race of this quality. 14 winners finished in the first three in their preceding start. 9 of these finished first last timeout.

Qualifiers: Rocky Creek, Ballynagour, Smad Place, Many Clouds, Monbeg Dude, Annacotty, What A Warrior, The Druids Nephew, Wychwoods Brook, Midnight Prayer, Via Sundown, Le Reve, Merry King

 

Age

Horses aged 6 (four), 7 (eight), 8 (three) as a population have won 15 of the 17 renewals, a 15% better than expected performance and backing this group blind would have netted you a profit at Betfair Starting prices of £48.55 to a £1 stake.

Qualifiers: Houblon Des Obeaux, Triolo D’alene, Rocky Creek, Ballynagour, Smad Place, Fingal Bay, Many Clouds, Unioniste, Annacotty, What A Warrior, The Druids Nephew, Wychwoods Brook, Via Sundown, Le Reve, Merry King

 

The Wisdom of Punters

The first two in the betting have won 10 races, 63% better than expected performance.

The remaining 7 were priced at attractive odds: 20/1, 7/1, 14/1, 33/1, 10/1, 10/1, 25/1.

Horses ranked 1st (four), 2nd (five) and 3rd (two) in the market in their recent race have won 11 races in total.

Qualifiers: Rocky Creek, Smad Place, Fingal Bay, Many Clouds, Unioniste, Annacotty, What A Warrior, The Druids Nephew, Wychwoods Brook, Via Sundown, Le Reve

 

Pace in the Race

Newbury is a categorised as a ‘galloping’ course and runners who raced prominently in the Hennessy have won on 11 occasions.

Contrast this against horses that were ‘held’ up who as a population of 148 runners have won on 5 occasions. However, statistically this result is 38% below normal expectation.

Below is our pace map for the Hennessy

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Qualifiers: Annacotty, What A Warrior, Midnight Prayer, Smad Place, Rocky Creek, Djakadam

 

Days Since Last Run

Horses returning from a layoff of greater than 150 days account for 8 of the last 17 races. However horses won who raced off a break of 28 days or less have won 8 races!

If we dig into the numbers for more clarity, horses that had zero or one race in the last 3 months as a group notched up 16 Hennessy Gold Cups.

Qualifiers: Houblon Des Obeaux, Triolo D’alene, Rocky Creek, Ballynagour, Smad Place, Fingal Bay, Vino Griego, Many Clouds, Unioniste, Monbeg Dude, Annacotty, Djakadam, Wychwoods Brook, Midnight Prayer, Via Sundown, Le Reve, Merry King

 

Courses for Hennessy Gold Cup Horses

With 7 wins from a population of 78 runners, horses who pitch up in the Hennessy after a recent spin at Cheltenham perform 44% better than expected.

Qualifiers: Smad Place, Djakadam, The Druids Nephew, Midnight Prayer

 

Recent Race Distance

A race around 3m or 3m 1f in their previous race seems to be the trend followed by former Hennessy winners.

As a population of 161 horses, this group have returned 12 winners, a 17% better than expected performance statistically.

Qualifiers: Rocky Creek, Smad Place, Fingal Bay, Vino Griego, Monbeg Dude, What A Warrior, Le Reve, Merry King

 

Trainers

Nicky Henderson is on an unprecedented Hennessey three timer (Bobs Worth: 2012, Triolo D’Alene: 2013). If you chuck in Trabolgan in 2005 any horse from his stable entered in the race should be given more than a superficial look during form study.

Qualifier: Triolo D’alene

 

Selections

Fingal Bay
Smad Place
Merry King

Good luck to everyone today. If you have a fancy let us know in the comment section below…

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