My selection for the big race today…

By on April 19, 2017

One of the big flat races today is the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes at 3.35pm at Newmarket.

And it’s certainly a tight one to call.

At the time of writing there are 5 horses pretty close at the top of the market; Pamplemousse, Sea Of Grace, Roly Poly, Poets Vanity and Brave Anna.

Let’s see if the trends can narrow down the selections.

 

Here are some of the key trends…

All of the last 10 winners had their last run in a non-handicap.

All of the last 10 winners had won at least 1 of their last 3 starts.

All of the last 10 winners had won a race as a 2yo.

All of the last 10 winners had won over 6F to 8F.

9 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season.

9 of 10 winners had their last start between 19th September and 3rd November.

9 of the last 10 winners had raced 3 or more times.

9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 last time out.

 

Of course trends are just a guideline but there are two horses that fit all the trends…

Poets Vanity and Brave Anna.

Here’s what the trainers say:

 

Andre Fabre, trainer of Pamplemousse…

“She has won one small race in good style but we’ve never worked her seriously.

I’m running her because the course and distance should suit and the race should be a good experience for her.

She will not be running in the Guineas.

The only reason she’s running in this race is because it’s a good race for her and the timing is right.”

 

Andrew Balding, trainer of Poet’s Vanity…

“She’s a lovely filly and also a big girl, so we were quite keen to get her started.

She’s done enough work to run well but will come on for it.”

William Haggas, trainer of Sea Of Grace…

“If she has any pretensions to being a Guineas candidate she’ll need to run a good race.

I’m keen to run her at Newmarket to see how she handles the course, although she’ll be better at a mile.

She could stay further, so I’ve put her in the Prix de Diane and Prix Saint-Alary.”

 

Aidan O’Brien, trainer of Brave Anna and Roly Poly…

“Brave Anna disappointed when we tried her over seven furlongs a couple of times last year.

We’re happy with her and giving her another chance over the distance.

Like Brave Anna, Roly Poly has shown her best form over six furlongs.

We tried her over a mile at the Breeders’ Cup and that didn’t work out, although it did come at the end of a busy campaign.

We’ve always thought she’d get seven furlongs.”

 

I’ll be having a few quid on Poet’s Vanity.

Whatever you decide to back, good luck to you.

It’s sure to be a cracking race!

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Take care,
Kris Jackman | Founder Tipster Supermarket

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