Free Horse Racing System – Outsider of Three

By on June 24, 2015

I was inspired to try to create this horse racing system when I read a very interesting piece a while back by Matt Bisogno of GeeGeez where he examined five betting cliches.

One of which was the old adage, “back the outsider in a three horse race”.

I often find age-old advice is still very applicable to today’s racing.

So let’s see if it makes for a profitable system.

I’m using Proform Racing as my horse racing system builder.

(In my mind it’s the best out there but it is expensive at £60 per month.)

I’m going to use BSP as a profit guide so I’ll be testing back to 2008 as that is when BSP was introduced.

And I’ll be testing using both UK and Irish racing.

 

Here are the results when backing every outsider in a three horse race since 2008…

 

Free Horse Racing System - Overview Since 2008

 


Most of that data is self explanatory, but there may be a couple you aren’t familiar with.

A/E = Actual winners divided by expected winners. It is useful for determining if a stat is being over or under bet. A value over 1 is good.

Chi Scr = Archie Score. This is used to determine with what probability selections are based on skill or luck. Anything over 4 is considered a robust system.


 

Straight away you can see that it is indeed profitable to back every single outsider in a 3 horse race.

Betting to BSP you get a very nice ROI.

Amazingly it’s profitable to SP as well!

We have a profitable horse racing system!

But don’t get too excited yet, it’s an up-and-down ride.

 

Here’s the yearly breakdown…

 

Free Horse Racing System Outsider Of Three - Yearly Breakdown

 

But it’s certainly the basis of a profitable system.

The logic being most punters will most probably over-bet the favourite leading to the outsider’s odds being over inflated.

So I decided to check out if I could improve the profit levels adding in some logical rules.

I checked several different form filters such as, days since last run, sex of horse, age of horse, distance, going etc.

But I didn’t find anything of interest.

However I did notice that horses that weren’t wearing headgear were much more profitable to follow.

 

Here’s the bottom line when just backing those without headgear…

 

Free Horse Racing System Outsider Of Three No Headgear - Overview

 

If you were to add this rule you would remove 150 odd runners but increase the BSP profit by 60 points and the SP profit by around 80 points!

 

Here’s the yearly breakdown…

 

Free Horse Racing System Outsider Of Three No Headgear - Yearly Breakdownew

 

So still 3 losing years (just) but profitability has improved.

The problem is, I can’t really explain why adding this rule would result in higher profits.

And I always think adding rules to horse racing systems without understanding why is a recipe for disaster.

So I’m going to throw this one over to you?

 

Can you think of a reason why this rule should improve profits so much?

 

If you have any ideas please met me know in the comments section at the bottom of this post.

One final thing I looked at was SP odds.

Now because the logic of the system is based on outsider’s odds being inflated it should be profitable for all odds ranges.

Looking at the stats I can see that there were 82 runners priced over 25/1 with no winners.

Now, these horses probably still represent value bets.

They are still underbet and in these odds ranges it just takes one winner at a large BSP to bring it into profit.

But of course the higher the odds you bet at the longer the losing runs.

And do you really want to be backing no-hopers, waiting for the big priced winner?

I’m not sure I do.

 

If you were to omit all horses priced over 25/1 here would be the final breakdown…

 

Free Horse Racing System Outsider Of Three - No headgear and <=25/1 - Overview

Free Horse Racing System Outsider Of Three - No headgear and <=25/1 - Yearly Breakdown

Horse Racing System Rules

 

1. Back the outsider in a three horse race.

2. Only if the horse in not wearing any headgear and is priced 25/1 or under.

 

It’s probably not a horse racing system you would want to follow as-is due to the fluctuating nature of the profits.

Rather than the finished product I think this is more of a starting point to be honest and more analysis is needed.

 

If you have any other horse racing system ideas you’d like me to test or if you can think of ways to improve this one,  just let me know in the comment section below.

 

Thanks for reading,
Paul

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