Free Horse Racing System – Outsider of Three (Part 2)

By on July 7, 2015

Last time around we built a horse racing system that had some promise.

Before reading this post it would make sense if you familiarised yourself with that one first (including the comments).

You can read that blog post here.

It was a system based on backing the outsider in a 3 horse race.

 

To re-cap:

 

Outsider of 3 – Horse Racing System Rules

 

1. Back the outsider in a three horse race.

2. Only if the horse in not wearing any headgear and is priced 25/1 or under.

 

Results since 2008

 

Free Horse Racing System Outsider Of Three - No headgear and

 

Free Horse Racing System Outsider Of Three - No headgear and

 

I had a few questions and was given some ideas of ways to improve the system so I’d like to investigate those a bit further in this post.

(As before I’m using Proform Racing to back test the system and I’m testing back until 2008 as that is when BSP was introduced.)

 


 

Brian had an idea of removing debutants as you never really know how they will run.

Here are the results based just for debutants…

 

Free Horse Racing System - Outsider Of Three - Debutants Only

 

So they do make a small loss.

But I’m not sure I’d want to include this rule into the system for a couple of reasons.

1. There have only been 38 runners which is a pretty small sample to be making a decision on.

Plus the average odds of these selections is 15.66 so it just takes one winner to put us back into profit.

2. The idea of the system is to find under-bet outsiders and I don’t see why debutants should be avoided.

In actuality I would guess that these horses would be under-bet the most as not many punters will back an outsider on its first run!

 


 

Ian asked if dutching the two outsiders improves profits.

Doing so would give you the following results…

 

Free Horse Racing System - Dutching the 2 outsiders results

 

The profit to BSP is pretty much identical but obviously the number of selections has doubled which has meant the ROI has halved.

Here’s the yearly breakdown…

 

Free Horse Racing System - Dutching 2 outsiders

 

One benefit is the big losing year of 2012 is only -16.25 points whereas before it was -37.03.

But on the flip side 2014 has gone from a profit of 6.41 points profit to a loss of 15.33 points.

So overall not particularly something I would recommend.

 


 

David asked if this worked with outsiders for 4 horse races and above.

Here are the figures for blindly backing outsiders in 4 horse races…

 

Free Horse Racing System Outsider Of Four

 

Ouch!

And here are the figures for blindly backing outsiders in 5 horse races…

 

Free Horse Racing System - Outsider of Five

 

Ouch again!

Doesn’t look like there’s anything to look at here!

 


 

Ian asked if it was best focusing on 2yo’s and 3yo’s. The theory being they are more likely to improve surprisingly than exposed ones.

Here are the results broken down by age…

 

Free horse racing system - Outsider of three broken down by age

 

Whilst a nice theory it doesn’t really help us and I can’t see how we can improve the system based on age.

 


 

Tony wanted to know how class and distance affected the system.

Here’s the class breakdown…

 

Free Horse Racing System Outsider Of Three Class Breakdown

 

All classes are profitable so nothing there.

Here’s the distance breakdown…

 

Free Horse Racing System Outsider Of Three Distance Breakdown

 

The loss at 5f is the most interesting here with a very poor strike rate.

But I’m not sure I can explain why so it may just be a statistical anomaly.

The average odds for the selections at 5f is 14.95 so it’ll only take a couple of winners and it’s back in profit anyway.

So I would personally out this down to randomness and I wouldn’t remove 5f races from the system.

 


 

So we’ve not really discovered anything that will improve the system unfortunately.

As horse racing systems go it’s OK.

It’s still profitable but as I said in the last post it may not be one you want to follow as it certainly has its ups and downs.

As before if you have any comments or questions on this system or even a suggestion for another horse racing system to study please let me know in the comments below.

Thanks for reading,
Paul

P.S. If you do leave a comment please leave the website field blank otherwise your comment will be labelled as spam.

 

 

16 Comments

  1. Mike

    July 12, 2015 at 7:01 pm

    Perhaps the outsider in a three horse race can win because instead of being a “truely” run race, as you would get with more horses involved, it can be a “tactical” race where the outsider can use more strategy to win over a better horse. Perhaps certain jockeys know how to do this better, perhaps it is easier to do on certain courses, or maybe the pace that the other horses typically run make a difference (no one wants to lead so the outsider can go slow up front and then pull away at the end). Some random thoughts.

  2. roy

    July 11, 2015 at 8:28 am

    how about if you backed to win a certain amount ie £5 £10 £20 so you would have more money on a 5/1 than a 10/1shot

  3. gordon venn

    July 10, 2015 at 6:02 pm

    the system of backing the outsider of three goes back many decades, I had my first
    bet in 1951, and it was told to me then I backed this system then without much success, and dropped it.

  4. davegray

    July 10, 2015 at 9:23 am

    Do particular tracks make it more condusive to outsiders winning?

  5. Tim

    July 10, 2015 at 8:01 am

    Try flat + aw . Finished 1st 2nd or 3rd within the last three runs and must have won no more than three times. Still a loss in 2012 but overall a 20% profit + 116 to SP

  6. ian

    July 10, 2015 at 7:08 am

    only other thing i can think of is stable form ie has the trainer had a winner in the last 2 weeks(RP stats). That shouldn’t take you long to analyze, paul…

  7. David

    July 7, 2015 at 10:19 am

    Paul, great analysis, many thanks.
    My idea of finding similar profits in 4 and 5 horse races proved to be a complete failure, but if increasing the number of runners is so bad then I wonder if reducing the number would be beneficial! In other words, what are the figures for 2 horse races?
    David

  8. Stuart

    July 7, 2015 at 10:07 am

    How about if the outsider of three is the trainer’s only runner for the day or ridden by the stable jockey or jockey’s only mount or ran in a better class race last time out. If a trainer or jockey in the top ten, at the time, only has one runner or one mount on the day then that must help.

    • Paul Pendleton

      July 9, 2015 at 7:26 pm

      Interesting ideas Stuart.

      Definitely something to investigate further.

      Cheers,
      Paul

  9. bob

    July 7, 2015 at 9:27 am

    paul, does this include irish meetings, already this month there have been 2 races at irish meetings, both won by outsider of3

    • Paul Pendleton

      July 9, 2015 at 7:24 pm

      Hi Bob,

      Yes this includes Irish meetings.

      Cheers,
      Paul

  10. Alan walton

    July 7, 2015 at 8:19 am

    Is there any different out come if the favorite is big odds on

    • Paul Pendleton

      July 9, 2015 at 7:23 pm

      Hi Alan,

      I’ll have a look and get back to you with some numbers.

      Cheers,
      Paul

  11. Alan walton

    July 7, 2015 at 8:16 am

    Is there any differences when the favorite is big
    Odds on

  12. Colin Gatrell

    July 7, 2015 at 7:31 am

    I like this system mainly for the ease with which one can quickly see if there is a system selection on any given day.

    Most of the time the outsider in a 3 horse race is going to remain the outsider right up to the off. If there is any doubt as to which of the 3 horses will go off the outsider of the 3 it’s simply a case of waiting until the ‘off’ before placing a bet.

    Thank you for sharing this system Paul. It certainly looks interesting.

    • Tim

      July 10, 2015 at 10:50 am

      OUTSIDER OF 3 . FLAT AND AW TRY FILTERS 0 TO 3 WINS AND BEST FINISH IN LAST THREE RACES 1ST 2ND OR 3RD. 2012 STILL -20 BUT OVER 8 YEARS 20% SR AND +116 TO SP

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