Denis: My strategy for picking winning bets

By on November 6, 2014

Hi everyone.

My name is Denis and I have been proofing on the blog in the 90 day free trial under the name of THE PERCENTAGE FORM EDGE.

Kris has asked me to put down in writing some of my thoughts and experiences connected to punting and more importantly thoughts on how we all collectively arrive at picking a horse to bet on.

I am no spring chicken, so I can go back many many years into my punting history and I can assure you some of it has been very ugly indeed.

Nothing new there, I can hear you all say, and I totally and wholeheartedly agree with you.

I use the word punting but lets be honest with ourselves what we are really doing is GAMBLING , we only use the word …punting …because it softens the concept of others who might find  what we do as a waste of time and money.

 

So…where do we start?

I suppose we should really start at the beginning and ask some obvious questions.

When we look at a race we can see that each horse will have a unique set of form figures which are a history of its last few races and that’s what most people look at to judge whether or not the said horse has a chance of winning the race, unfortunately though it cannot be and isn’t that simple.

If it was that simple then we would all be millionaires and the bookies would all be out of business.

The statistics say that around 33% or 1 in 3 favourites win, which I suppose might be about right, I don’t know as I have never tested that theory but lets accept that as being about right.

That means that 66% of all racing is not won by the favourite which is our first edge that we have against the bookie and its how we use that edge that defines us as an opponent to the bookmaker.

We should not waste this edge, its our main weapon that we have and we should use it wisely.

 

So…. how do we use the edge that we have gained?

Well there can be many many ways in which we might use this edge and that is down to each individual but use it we must.

Within a race card you will see dozens and dozens of pieces of information about the horse and jockey and the makeup of the race and all of this information is relevant to the race……..but is it all relevant?

Or can we bypass a lot of it and only use the relevant bits that we need to gain another edge?

…..I say yes we can, but it’s in which direction that you take that will eventually determine what sort of method or system you end up with.

I have always come at racing from the left field if you like and the reason for that is ostensibly because that’s how I am in life.

A quirky sense of humour, an inquisitive child who always asked the odd question, and an outright belief that  nothing is always as it seems……never.!!!

Armed with this, whenever I approach a new challenge with regards racing, I am always open to the possibility that a new edge can be found.

 

So where do we find these edges?

That’s the 64,000 dollar question and does take a lot of trial and error.

I spent 3 years on a method that in the end I had to abandon purely because it was not that it did not work, it was just too complicated and long winded and would have driven me to the edge……please excuse the pun.

That said, I did not give up, I persevered, de-constructed it and streamlined it.

This took another year of testing but eventually  it did come good and I now use this method  to pick out individual horses that have an excellent chance of placing in a race according to the criteria.

What I am trying to convey to you is that we can all do this.

Its not rocket science just ask questions of the sport and you will find answers.

Questions like…..How can a horse with form figures of 000000 win a race next time up?

Think about it and then start applying things like logic, what you know about HOMO ERECTUS, and what you know about  market moves, so called gambling yards and dubious jockeys……Remember …when you ask the question …there has to be an answer.

Remember, the more we ask questions the more chances we have of opening up the race to the possibility of the favourite not winning.

But favourites do win……….

Yes we know this and there’s nothing wrong in backing a favourite….as long as your method has pinpointed it.

I have theories about a lot of things in racing and it’s these theories that I develop.

Some turn out to be sheer madness and will fall away quite quickly but some………just some….keep returning the winners and if you can gather enough theories that return winners and put them together in a way that it works for you then …hey presto…you have produced a viable method that works for you…….well done.

I hope that this made some sort of sense and welcome others to participate and discuss the question of how to build a viable system or method.

Denis.

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