4 possible reasons why Enable won’t win the Eclipse?

By on July 6, 2019

Today sees the running of the Coral Eclipse at Sandown and the long awaited return of superstar Enable.

It would take a brave person to bet against her winning her 10th race in a row.

But a few of the trends and stats are against her…

1. All 22 of the last winners ran at Epsom or Ascot (+ Royal York) last time out. (Enable ran at Churchill Downs).

2. 14 of the last 15 winners had run between 2-4 times that season. (This will be Enable’s first race of the season).

3. A filly hasn’t won the race since 1992.

4. Enable has run over the distance just once previously and it was her only defeat!

But that being said I am not convinced these negative stats really mean that much within the context of this race.

And there’s nothing in the above that would put me off backing her.

But if you’re someone who likes having an EW bet on an outsider then maybe the past trends will help you narrow down the field.

Today the trends come from NagNagNag and you can see more stats here.

Here goes:

No horse aged 6 or over has ever won the Eclipse.
All of the last 22 winners ran at Epsom or Ascot (+ Royal York) last time out.
All of the last 15 winners finished in the top 5 last time out.
14 of the last 15 winners last ran in a Group 1 race.
14 of the last 15 winners had run between 2-4 times that season.
14 of the last 15 winners had their last race between 16-28 days beforehand (exception was making his seasonal debut).
14 of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 3 that season (exception was making his seasonal debut).
13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 3 in the betting at 9/1 or shorter.
11 of the last 15 winners had already won a Group 1 race (all 4 exceptions came in the last 5 years 2014/18 Gr 2 – 2016/17 Gr. 3).
11 of the last 15 winners were rated 118+ (3 exceptions were un-rated).
Only 2 horse rated under 110 have managed to make the frame in the last 20 years.
Since 1996 only 2 horses aged 4 or 5 have won the Eclipse after avoiding the Royal meeting (1 exception was making his seasonal debut).
All 8 fillies to have run in the last 20 years finished unplaced.
6 of the last 8 winning 3yo’s ran in the Newmarket 2000 Guineas earlier in the Season.

Good luck to those having a bet.

Have a great weekend,
Kris Jackman | Founder Tipster Supermarket